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Pavel Vidal analysis describes a 'two-speed' economy with year-on-year inflation of 28.44%
State enterprises keep declining while several private activities expand, according to an analysis by the economist reviewed by 14ymedio and reported by Infobae, which puts the year-on-year rise in food prices at 42.66%.
Cuba's economy has begun to run at 'two speeds': state enterprises continue to decline while several private activities are expanding fast, according to an analysis by economist Pavel Vidal reviewed by 14ymedio and reported by Infobae. The reforms approved this year allowed micro, small and medium-sized businesses to exceed 100 employees, hold stakes in more than one company and diversify their activities.
Private growth is not enough, however, to restore the country's productive capacity: its concentration in retail, the constraints stemming from sanctions and the collapse of tourism limit its effect on the output of goods and on hard-currency earnings, according to the same analysis.
The role of private firms as fuel suppliers increases their need for hard currency, and part of those purchases could be financed with pesos accumulated over years in corporate checking accounts, originating in fiscal deficits, subsidies to state enterprises and the monetization of those imbalances. Cuba's Currency and Finance Observatory believes the shift of those funds into the informal market may help explain the accelerating fall of the peso, though it warns that the statistics do not yet allow the phenomenon to be measured.
Daily demand for dollars in the monitored online marketplaces averaged $61,000 in October, 15% below the $71,700 recorded in the second half of September but 27% above August levels. The amounts offered for sale fell by about 25% between the first and second halves of October.
In September, the year-on-year change in the general price index was 28.44%, and for food and non-alcoholic beverages 42.66%. Prices have risen almost 25% since January, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information, while the peso has depreciated 39% against the dollar.
Sources: Infobae · Serie Yamacoa: Dólar en el mercado informal (elTOQUE (tasa representativa))
Data updated: 2026-11-09T16:15:00.000Z