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ECLAC forecasts a 13% drop in Cuban goods exports in 2026

The International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean report, presented on October 15, projects a 13% decline in Cuba's goods exports and notes that, if Cuba and Haiti are excluded, the growth projected for Central America would rise from 1.7% to 4.1% in 2026.

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects that the regional economy will grow 2.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. For Central America it forecasts an expansion of 1.7% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, noting that «this result is influenced by the performance of Cuba and Haiti. If these two economies are excluded, the subregional average would be 4.1% for 2026 and 4.2 for 2027», in a passage translated by Yamacoa.

In Cuba's case, the body forecasts a 13% fall in goods exports in 2026. In the first half of the year external sales had already dropped 10%, while imports fell 3%, in a context that ECLAC attributes to internal production constraints and reduced export capacity.

According to OnCubaNews, the export contraction in the first half of 2026 repeats that of the same period in 2025, while imports fell 3% after rising 13% in the first half of the previous year. Cuba is among the countries analyzed with falling external sales, alongside Jamaica, down 10%, and Trinidad and Tobago, down 8%.

The report frames those figures in an adverse environment: «geopolitical tensions, disruptions to logistics routes and the lower predictability of trade policy are reshaping the environment in which the region's economies operate», ECLAC states, in a passage translated by Yamacoa.

Speaking to Martí Noticias, energy expert Jorge Piñón, of the University of Texas at Austin, argued that a road map for the country's economic recovery has to be prepared starting now: «The economic and social situation in Cuba during a transition is going to be worse than what we are seeing today if we do not have that plan ready», he said, in remarks translated by Yamacoa. That is his assessment, not an ECLAC projection.

Sources: Martí Noticias · OnCubaNews

Data updated: 2026-10-25T04:15:00.000Z

ECLAC forecasts a 13% drop in Cuban goods exports in 2026 | Yamacoa Observatory