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OMFi expects the dollar to end November near 950 pesos on the informal market

elTOQUE's currency and finance observatory puts its central scenario for the end of the month at 950 CUP per dollar, 8% above the 880 at the end of October, and describes an economy beginning to run "at two speeds".

The dollar ended October at 880 CUP, up from 750 at the end of September: a rise of 17.33%. For the second month running, the rate closed above both the central scenario and the upper bound of the range projected by the models of elTOQUE's Currency and Finance Observatory (OMFi).

For the end of November those models project a rate of between 930 and 974 pesos, with a central scenario of 950. The euro, which crossed four figures this week, is expected at 1,036 pesos, and the freely convertible currency (MLC) at 775. "The upward pressure shows no sign of easing," warns economist Pavel Vidal, the report's author, in remarks translated by Yamacoa.

The bulletin argues that Cuba's economy "is beginning to run at two speeds": the state corporate sector keeps deteriorating and the state lacks the resources to sustain public investment or halt the decline of social services, while several private activities show a dynamism the OMFi attributes to this year's openings, which allow private firms to exceed 100 workers, hold stakes in more than one company, expand premises and diversify activities.

That dynamism, the observatory warns, is not enough to restore the country's productive capacity, because private activity remains concentrated in trade and faces US sanctions and the collapse of tourism. October brought new channels linking private and state businesses, such as calls to lease and tender state-owned premises.

The report's central hypothesis is that the informal market has a new buyer: private companies that need hard currency for fuel, solar panels, equipment and supplies, and that may be financing those purchases with pesos sitting idle for years in corporate current accounts. The OMFi stresses that this is a new factor that available statistics cannot yet quantify.

Daily demand for dollars in the online spaces the observatory monitors averaged some 61,000 in October, 15% less than the 71,700 of the second half of September but 27% above August. Supply did not respond to price: the amounts advertised for sale fell by around 25% between the first and second halves of the month.

Sources: elTOQUE · 14ymedio · Serie Yamacoa: Dólar en el mercado informal (elTOQUE (tasa representativa))

Data updated: 2026-11-05T16:15:00.000Z

OMFi expects the dollar to end November near 950 pesos on the informal market | Yamacoa Observatory